Electoral Attitudes of the Population of Kazakhstan on the Eve of Elections in March
March 7, 2023
(part 1)
The country is waiting for the elections. What electoral moods in the weeks before the elections to the Mazhilis and Maslikhats can be identified? For example, in terms of awareness of changes in the electoral system.
In January of this year 58% of respondents did not know that deputies would be elected not only by proportional system, but also by majoritarian principle.
At the end of February 13.4% of the interrogated have a good idea of what they are talking about, 51.3% have heard something about the innovation, every third person (32.2%) still does not know how the approaches to the election of deputies of all levels have changed.
Diagram 1 - Knowledge of the new rules for the election of deputies (% of the total number of respondents).
The country is waiting for the elections. What electoral moods in the weeks before the elections to the Mazhilis and Maslikhats can be identified? For example, in terms of awareness of changes in the electoral system.
In January of this year 58% of respondents did not know that deputies would be elected not only by proportional system, but also by majoritarian principle.
At the end of February 13.4% of the interrogated have a good idea of what they are talking about, 51.3% have heard something about the innovation, every third person (32.2%) still does not know how the approaches to the election of deputies of all levels have changed.
Diagram 1 - Knowledge of the new rules for the election of deputies (% of the total number of respondents).
To illustrate the level of awareness of the population about the upcoming elections, here is another distribution of answers. Respondents were asked if they know which elections will be held in March this year, who exactly we will choose? Every fifth respondent heard about elections for the first time or had difficulty in answering.
62,3% of respondents know that parliamentary elections will take place on March, 19. Twenty-seven percent of respondents know that regional maslikhats deputies will be elected, and 22.6 percent remember the elections of rayon maslikhats deputies. 5.5% think that there will be elections of rural and district akims. But at the same time the majority knows that in March parliamentary, not presidential, elections will be held.
19 March 2023 elections will be held in Kazakhstan. Do you know what elections will be held in March, who we will elect? (%, any number of answers)
62,3% of respondents know that parliamentary elections will take place on March, 19. Twenty-seven percent of respondents know that regional maslikhats deputies will be elected, and 22.6 percent remember the elections of rayon maslikhats deputies. 5.5% think that there will be elections of rural and district akims. But at the same time the majority knows that in March parliamentary, not presidential, elections will be held.
19 March 2023 elections will be held in Kazakhstan. Do you know what elections will be held in March, who we will elect? (%, any number of answers)
Can the return to the mixed system, as predicted by some Kazakhstani experts, have an impact on the turnout? Obviously, due to insufficient awareness of the population about the innovation, we cannot say that the assessments of respondents expressed in the survey are fully justified.
Nevertheless, only slightly more than a quarter (28%) believe that inclusion of self-nominated candidates in the lists of candidates will influence voters' decision to go to elections, i.e. increase interest in the elections, and thereby increase the turnout. More than a half (53.1%) think that this innovation is unlikely to radically change voters' attitudes towards the elections, i.e. the usual number of electors will come.
Diagram 3 - Influence of inclusion of self-nominated candidates on voters' decision on turnout (% of the total number of respondents)
Nevertheless, only slightly more than a quarter (28%) believe that inclusion of self-nominated candidates in the lists of candidates will influence voters' decision to go to elections, i.e. increase interest in the elections, and thereby increase the turnout. More than a half (53.1%) think that this innovation is unlikely to radically change voters' attitudes towards the elections, i.e. the usual number of electors will come.
Diagram 3 - Influence of inclusion of self-nominated candidates on voters' decision on turnout (% of the total number of respondents)
(Part 2)
The question of turnout in the upcoming elections is not idle. On the one hand, high turnout may be the evidence that the people of Kazakhstan believed in the New Kazakhstan and are ready to support the political reforms announced by President Tokayev by voting in the upcoming elections. On the other hand, a high turnout may "confuse the cards" and make the election results less predictable.
As it has already been noted (see Part 1), contrary to the expert assessments, the position (53.1%) prevails in the public opinion that a return to a mixed system would not have a noticeable influence on the turnout and would not become an incentive for voting on March 19.
We remind that at the regular parliamentary elections held in January 2021 the turnout was 63.3%, which is the lowest indicator since 1999. According to the results of the post-election poll, conducted by the Strategy Public Opinion Research Center in February 2021, only 44.8% of respondents confirmed their participation in the voting.
What can we say about the turnout at the upcoming elections in March? According to the results of the poll conducted at the end of February 2023, 22.7% will definitely take part in the voting, 36.3% are likely to go to the polls, i.e., 59% said with varying degrees of certainty that they would take part in the elections on March 19, 2023.
38.6% said they would likely or definitely not go to the polls.
Chart 1: - Planning to take part in voting on March 19, 2023 (% of the total number of respondents).
The question of turnout in the upcoming elections is not idle. On the one hand, high turnout may be the evidence that the people of Kazakhstan believed in the New Kazakhstan and are ready to support the political reforms announced by President Tokayev by voting in the upcoming elections. On the other hand, a high turnout may "confuse the cards" and make the election results less predictable.
As it has already been noted (see Part 1), contrary to the expert assessments, the position (53.1%) prevails in the public opinion that a return to a mixed system would not have a noticeable influence on the turnout and would not become an incentive for voting on March 19.
We remind that at the regular parliamentary elections held in January 2021 the turnout was 63.3%, which is the lowest indicator since 1999. According to the results of the post-election poll, conducted by the Strategy Public Opinion Research Center in February 2021, only 44.8% of respondents confirmed their participation in the voting.
What can we say about the turnout at the upcoming elections in March? According to the results of the poll conducted at the end of February 2023, 22.7% will definitely take part in the voting, 36.3% are likely to go to the polls, i.e., 59% said with varying degrees of certainty that they would take part in the elections on March 19, 2023.
38.6% said they would likely or definitely not go to the polls.
Chart 1: - Planning to take part in voting on March 19, 2023 (% of the total number of respondents).
There is a slight difference in the answers according to the place of residence. Residents of the countryside somewhat more often than residents of the townships (+5.6%) said that they would go to the polls: 62.6% in the countryside and 56.9% in the city.
Diagram 2 - Planning to take part in voting on March 19, 2023 (% by place of residence)
Diagram 2 - Planning to take part in voting on March 19, 2023 (% by place of residence)
In young age groups (18-35 years old) the share of those who do not plan to go to the polls is higher: in the group of 18-24 years old more than a half (52.6%).
Diagram 3 - Planning to take part in voting on March 19, 2023 (% by age)
Diagram 3 - Planning to take part in voting on March 19, 2023 (% by age)
Note that in this survey 28% of respondents said they were dissatisfied with their lives. The index of life satisfaction affects electoral behavior. Thus, those respondents who are not satisfied with their lives spoke more often about their refusal to participate in elections: for example, 76.2% in the group of absolutely dissatisfied will definitely and probably not go to vote.
Diagram 4 - Planning to take part in voting on March 19, 2023 (% by life satisfaction).
Diagram 4 - Planning to take part in voting on March 19, 2023 (% by life satisfaction).
The main reasons for refusing to participate in the elections do not change from poll to poll. Almost half of those (44.2%) who will not go to the elections believe that the results of the voting are known in advance and nothing depends on their participation. A third are indifferent to the candidates. Another 16.2% spend election Sunday in accordance with their personal plans.
Diagram 5 - Reasons for not going to the elections (% of those who will not go to the elections; 38.6%)
Diagram 5 - Reasons for not going to the elections (% of those who will not go to the elections; 38.6%)
(Part 3)
So, 59% of respondents said with varying degrees of certainty that they would go to the polls. In terms of regions, high rates of potential turnout were in Kostanay region, Karaganda region, Akmola region, Abay region and Ulytau region. The lowest rates of potential turnout are in Almaty, Atyrau, Pavlodar and Turkestan regions.
Diagram 1 - Potential turnout by regions of Kazakhstan
So, 59% of respondents said with varying degrees of certainty that they would go to the polls. In terms of regions, high rates of potential turnout were in Kostanay region, Karaganda region, Akmola region, Abay region and Ulytau region. The lowest rates of potential turnout are in Almaty, Atyrau, Pavlodar and Turkestan regions.
Diagram 1 - Potential turnout by regions of Kazakhstan
According to the results of the poll, 43.6% of those who will come to the elections are planning to vote for the Amanat party. The Aq Jol party is in second place - 11.3%. In third place in terms of electoral preferences is the Auyl party - 9.9%.
According to the poll results, the PPK party (6.3%) and the Respublica (6.2%) pass the 5% barrier.
12.7% have not decided yet and 3.6% will vote against all.
Chart 2 - Voting for political parties in the March 19, 2023 elections (% of those 59% who plan to go to the polls)
According to the poll results, the PPK party (6.3%) and the Respublica (6.2%) pass the 5% barrier.
12.7% have not decided yet and 3.6% will vote against all.
Chart 2 - Voting for political parties in the March 19, 2023 elections (% of those 59% who plan to go to the polls)
In general, the voting of women and men is the same, but there are slight differences. Thus, there are more women in the electorate of Aq Jol, Amanat and PPK parties, while Auyl, Baitak, PSDP and Respublica have more male support.
Diagram 3 - Voting for political parties in the elections of March 19, 2023 (% by gender)
Diagram 3 - Voting for political parties in the elections of March 19, 2023 (% by gender)
The Amanat party has a relatively balanced electorate in terms of age. Approximately equal percentages of the respondents are ready to vote for this party, but there are two age cohorts which differ markedly in their preferences (fluctuations of 10%): thus in the group of 56-63 years old only 39.3% are ready to vote for this party, while in the group of 36-45 years old - 49%.
Other parties have specifics in terms of electorate support in terms of age. For example, Aq Jol has low support in the youngest and oldest age groups, Respublica is not exactly a youth party, and PPK has the highest support in the 56-63 age group.
Interesting is Auyl party which has the most unbalanced electorate, but at the same time almost one fifth of it is more than 65 years old.
Diagram 4 - Voting for political parties in the elections of March 19, 2023 (% by age)
Other parties have specifics in terms of electorate support in terms of age. For example, Aq Jol has low support in the youngest and oldest age groups, Respublica is not exactly a youth party, and PPK has the highest support in the 56-63 age group.
Interesting is Auyl party which has the most unbalanced electorate, but at the same time almost one fifth of it is more than 65 years old.
Diagram 4 - Voting for political parties in the elections of March 19, 2023 (% by age)
The electorate of Aq Jol and Amanat parties is quite balanced in terms of ethnicity: support is equally high in all ethnic groups. While Auyl has more Kazakhs and representatives of other ethnic groups in its electorate (Russians are almost 4 times less than Kazakhs). The PPK has more Russians and representatives of other ethnic groups among its supporters. Respublica also has a smaller share of Kazakhs in the electorate.
Diagram 5 - Voting for political parties in elections of March 19, 2023 (% by ethnicity)
Diagram 5 - Voting for political parties in elections of March 19, 2023 (% by ethnicity)
According to the results of the survey, two parties from the first three have a balanced electorate in terms of support of citizens and villagers - Aq Jol (11.5% of citizens and 11% of villagers said they would vote for this party) and Auyl (9.8% in the city and 10% in the countryside).
Amanat has significantly higher support in rural areas (52.7%) in comparison with urban areas (36.9%).
The PPK and Respublica parties, on the contrary, have higher support in the city than in the countryside.
Diagram 6 - Voting for political parties (% by place of residence)
Amanat has significantly higher support in rural areas (52.7%) in comparison with urban areas (36.9%).
The PPK and Respublica parties, on the contrary, have higher support in the city than in the countryside.
Diagram 6 - Voting for political parties (% by place of residence)
Can the parties increase their electorate in the time remaining? Almost every seventh respondent (12.7%) has not yet decided for which party he will vote. Most often these are city dwellers, women, respondents under 25 years old (19.2%), Russians (18%) and representatives of other ethnic groups (15%). So one can still try their luck, or rather test their electoral attractiveness in the time allocated before the elections.
Source: turanpress.kz
Source: turanpress.kz
