The question of turnout in the upcoming elections is not idle. On the one hand, high turnout may be the evidence that the people of Kazakhstan believed in the New Kazakhstan and are ready to support the political reforms announced by President Tokayev by voting in the upcoming elections. On the other hand, a high turnout may "confuse the cards" and make the election results less predictable.
As it has already been noted (see Part 1), contrary to the expert assessments, the position (53.1%) prevails in the public opinion that a return to a mixed system would not have a noticeable influence on the turnout and would not become an incentive for voting on March 19.
We remind that at the regular parliamentary elections held in January 2021 the turnout was 63.3%, which is the lowest indicator since 1999. According to the results of the post-election poll, conducted by the Strategy Public Opinion Research Center in February 2021, only 44.8% of respondents confirmed their participation in the voting.
What can we say about the turnout at the upcoming elections in March? According to the results of the poll conducted at the end of February 2023, 22.7% will definitely take part in the voting, 36.3% are likely to go to the polls, i.e., 59% said with varying degrees of certainty that they would take part in the elections on March 19, 2023.
38.6% said they would likely or definitely not go to the polls.
Chart 1: - Planning to take part in voting on March 19, 2023 (% of the total number of respondents).